Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
